Introduction
The Exogenous Substack is a publication of Exogenous, Inc. (EXO), a geo-political risk analysis organization based on "Digital Net Assessment," an approach derived from years of work engaged with the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment (ONA) and its director, Andrew Marshall (1921-2019). The original task of Marshall’s ONA was to sift through all possible factors shaping geopolitics in order to arrive at an understanding of primary causes of geopolitical behavior. DNA takes the same approach, with a particular focus on the profound, ongoing psychological effects of digital technology and media on geopolitical behavior. The principle effect has been to upend Globalist world order and replace it with a new world order based on three spheres of influence: East, West, and Digital. As a result, these "Three Spheres” impose geopolitical conditions similar to the astrodynamic "Three Body Problem," which has no general solution.
Our Three Spheres assessment is that governments, businesses, and news media are leading one another to misidentify and misunderstand all current crises, which in turn creates both new dangers, as well as opportunities that are not being actively pursued. For example, the deepening conflict between the US (West) and China (East) is often miscast as a new "Cold War," now an obsolete framework based on global hegemony and adversarial competition. This is a dangerous mistake and has already led to deadly kinetic clashes and points to the potential for WW III.
In addition to Marshall’s original ONA approach, the work of Samuel Huntington (1927-2008) is another DNA: TSN fundamental assessment resource, particularly his early work on "Development and Decay," in which he discusses the trajectory of societies-in-motion, while under major stress. Huntington was one of the few writing in his times about the rise-and-fall of what many take for granted or misapprehend. Like Oswald Spengler, Arnold Toynbee and Carroll Quigley, Huntington understood that civilizations are fragile and their longevity is not guaranteed, particularly under conditions of technology-driven paradigm shifts, which is precisely what the Digital Sphere has brought.
In assessing this impact of the Digital Sphere on the civilizations of the West and East Spheres, DNA:TSN draws on the work of Marshall McLuhan (1911-80), the 1960s prophet of technological disruption. Our use of McLuhan’s ideas allows us to understand the deeper implications of what "generative AI" platforms like GPT-4 and its competitors could mean. While experts and the frontpage news appreciate that AI technology is changing the political/economic structure of society with job displacement and widespread social upheaval, their discussions do not fully capture the implications of these developments. In addition to halting the thrust of Globalism (and its associated "world order"), the entire edifice of "modern" society—as launched in the West by the Printing Press, 400+ years ago—is now being called into serious question. Some have even given up on Planet Earth.
Under the format of Substack, our editorial team will bring together our own essays, guest contributions, and a series of Not-Quite-Right (NQR) observations taken from the headlines, considered from multiple viewpoints, including the Main Stream Media, analysis from the EXO staff, and even from GPT-4. These NQR elements are divided into sections on each of the Three Spheres, underlining the reality of our newly constructed multi-sphere world.
The DNA: TSN editorial outlook combines a deep understanding of the effects that new technology "formally" causes in people, cultures, and the leadership of the Three Spheres. The paradigm-shift we are experiencing has already overwhelmed most 20th-century elites, implying that they are being replaced, a process described by Vilfredo Pareto (1894-1923) as a "circulation of elites." The same process is likely underway in the Sciences, as Thomas Kuhn (1922-96) described. Tomorrow's scientists and leaders will be forged in this Digital furnace.
We look forward to informing and, perhaps, even entertaining our readers and hope for your attention and support.